Fester Addams
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Posted - 2004.03.28 10:03:00 -
[1]
The big question is: What is many points?
At the moment ALOT of people seem to be doing starship R&D and if there are suficiently many people doing R&D then even huge amounts of RP on an individual level will be dwarfed.
Lets say the casual researcher atm has 5000RP in starship research and lets say the unlucky dedicated researchers have 30000RP, now that would make the dedicated people a mere 6 times as likely to get the BP as the average researcher, this will give a good chance to get a BP if there is a low number of people researching.
On the other hand, if there are 10 dedicated researchers and 100 casual ones then those 30k RP will be dwarfed by the sheer number of RP ammassed.
Asuming the above is true then a 30k RP player would have a 3.75% chance of getting a BP. This is asuming that each RP is equal to a lottery ticket and each ticket having an equal chance of winning.
In reality in the above example the ods are greately in favor of (62.5%) the casual researchers being awarded the BP over a dedicated one (37.5%).
However keep in mind that if the BP goes to the casual group then the lucky player being awarded the BP will be the 1% of 62.5% as oposed to the 10% of 37.5% for the dedicated (a casual researcher would in my example have 0.625% chance to get a BP and the dediceted 3.75% chance)
To the dedicated player the risk is being upset that a player with a low number of RP's keep getting the BP is naturally high however this meens forgetting that the casual researchers are far more numerous and thus as an individual they have a much lower chance of getting the BP, its the gray mass that wins and you only see one winner cheering "I got it with only X RP".
I expect everyone involved in Morkt Drak's posts about the lottery is well aware of the above situation however I have seen many one off posts giving the impression that having a higher number of "tickets" should somehow increase the chance even further (in effect having 1 ticket would give you 1 winning number but having 10 tickets giving 11 winning numbers), as the lottery seems to be a linear one this is not fair, each ticket should and I expect it does give 1 chance to win, ammassing more tickedt will give you a better chance however each ticket should have an equal chance of being the winning ticket.
I am however suprised to hear that there is no threshold to be in the lottery, I would have ranked the BP's by a difficulty number.
When the winner is decided I would first ither divide the number of RP with that number and dropping all fractions, this would ensure noone would get the good BP's without investing atleast time waiting for the RP to increase.
Say an interceptor BP would have a difficulty of 10000, this would meen you would have to have a minimum of 10k RP to even have a chance to get one, at 20k you would have twise the chance of anyone with 10000-19999RP. Or you could only have the threshold.
Or if you have less than the threshold then you are not in the lottery, if you have more then you have a chance based on your actual RP's.
Lastly now, sadly there is a rumor that the lottery has a glitch, aparently, if you are lucky enough to get one BP then your chance to get another is improved. Personally I am very sceptical about the truth in this but I have no reason to mistrust Morkt, Papa Smurf is however investigating the issue and thus I will not comment this part untill his verdict is in nomatter how many next Iceage soonTM references are made.
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